Journal ID : TRKU-19-08-2021-11482
[This article belongs to Volume - 63, Issue - 08]
Total View : 388


Abstract :

Pramuka Island is one of the many islands in the Kepulauan Seribu group, the administrative center and central government of the Kepulauan Seribu. This strategy to increase tourism potential on Pramuka Island needs to be mapped out to understand better what things have the potential to be developed and do not have the potential to be developed to increase tourism potential on Pramuka Island. The analysis in this study uses a system dynamics approach. The stages in the development of the model are as follows: causal loop diagram model, stock-flow diagram model, model verification, model validation, and scenario design. The results show that: 1. Causal loop diagram in the study This study has fourteen influential variables, 2. The stock-flow diagram in this study successfully created three sub-models: the number of visitor’s sub-model, tourist attraction sub-model, and institutional sub- model, 3. The validation test results were carried out when the model made had successfully run. The results of the validity test in this study showed the mean comparison and error variance values, with each value on the variables as follows Total of Visitors = 4.7% and 7.01% Tourist Attraction = 4.5% and 22.05% Institutional = 4.1% and 13.87%, 4. Simulation of several variables to optimize the increase in tourism potential is carried out on the sub-model of the number of visitors with some simulations.

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