Journal ID : TRKU-23-07-2020-10921
[This article belongs to Volume - 62, Issue - 07]
Total View : 342

Title : Seasonal pattern of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Malaysia using a generalized linear model

Abstract :

Large-scale outbreaks of hand, foot, mouth, and disease (HFMD) have been reported in Malaysia since 1997. The disease occurs throughout the year and has a peak cyclical trend with every three years, which suggests that its incidence may be influenced by climatic factors, which lead to infection and subsequent outbreaks. Previous studies have shown that the generalized linear model is among the popular methods that are often used in the analysis of HFMD. However, the impact and pattern of HFMD, particularly in Malaysia, is not very well understood due to limited statistical analysis that has been performed in dealing with these issues. Hence, the purpose of this study is to describe the pattern of HFMD in Malaysia from the year 2010 to 2017 using a generalized linear model. A Fourier smoothing technique will be employed to describe the pattern of weekly HFMD at each state of Malaysia. The result has shown that the peak timing and the pattern of HFMD cases differ between regions, and it is possibly due to the different geographical location and climate influence. The peak period for the majority of HFMD cases was recorded during the southwest monsoon. In contrast, the off period of this disease occurred during the northeast monsoon, which could be considered as the wet season. These findings provide significant evidence for a comprehensive understanding of the seasonal pattern on HFMD, and the developed model can help policymakers design better strategies to minimize the spreading of the infectious dise

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