Journal ID : TRKU-07-08-2020-10974
[This article belongs to Volume - 62, Issue - 07]
Total View : 343

Title : Causal Factors Affecting the Administration Efficiency of Thailand in Achieving Future Sustainability for Thailand 4.0

Abstract :

This study aims to analyze the forecasting the CO2 emission, population, GDP growth of energy consumption in the Rubber, Chemical and Petroleum Industries sectors of Thailand. The scope of research employed the input-output table of Thailand from the year 2000 to 2015. It was used to create the model of CO2 emission, population, GDP growth and predict ten years and thirty years in advance. The model used was the ARIMAX Model and VARMA Model which was divided into two models. The results show that from the first model which predicted the duration of ten years (2016-2025) by using ARIMAX Model (2,1,2), Thailand has average 17.65% higher quantity of CO2 emission than the energy consumption sector (in 2025). The second model predicted the duration of 30 years (2016-2045) by using VARMA Model (2,1,3) shows that Thailand has average 39.68% higher quantity of CO2 emission than the energy consumption sector (in 2025). From the analyses, it shows that Thailand has continuously higher quantity of CO2 emission from the energy consumption. This negatively affects the environmental system and economical system of the country incessantly. This effect can lead to unsustainable development

Full article